Just as the destiny of the Guinness Six Nations championship looks set to be settled when France face Ireland in Dublin, this seismic contest is also likely to have major implications for the British and Irish Lions squad.
It promises to be the kind of acid test that can provide compelling evidence for Lions head coach Andy Farrell when he sits down to select his touring party for Australia, and none more so than Ireland captain Caelan Doris.
The 26 year-old, who missed Ireland’s victory over Wales because of a knee injury, is expected to return to the starting XV to face France. The Leinster No 8 went into the championship widely regarded as the frontrunner to be Lions captain, a billing that was further enhanced as Ireland powered to victories over England and Scotland.
His captaincy on the international stage may be still in its infancy – he first rose to the challenge of leading Ireland in the second Test in Durban as Farrell’s side defeated the Springboks 25-24 last July, but his stature has grown since taking over the role on a permanent basis from Peter O’Mahony.
And that it was Farrell who promoted him last autumn before stepping down to assume his Lions duties provides an insight into the regard he is held within the Ireland management.
Yet competition for the Lions captaincy appears to have heightened with Maro Itoje’s form during the first three rounds of the championship. Itoje may be even more inexperienced as an international captain, having only been appointed as Jamie George’s England successor in January. But he is vastly experienced on the Test stage and appears to have rediscovered the form that secured his iconic status in Lions history with his performances on the 2017 tour of New Zealand, most notably the second-Test victory in Wellington.
While many expected that a leadership role would soon follow, he has had to bide his time, serving under Dylan Hartley, Owen Farrell and George.
Eddie Jones, the former England head coach, publicly questioned Itoje’s leadership credentials in his book Leadership: Lessons From My Life In Rugby. “I might be wrong, but I am not sure Maro is a future England captain,” wrote Jones. “He is going to be one of the great players, but he is very inward-looking. He drives himself rather than anyone else. He doesn’t usually influence people off the field.”
Maturity and experience, however, appear to have changed his outlook and influence, the single-mindedness of youth giving way to a wider leadership role in which he found his voice both with Saracens and England.
Steve Borthwick, the England head coach, first introduced him to the vice-captaincy role during last year’s Six Nations, and Itoje’s maturity was recognised by his club, with Mark McCall making him club captain at Saracens at the start of the season, significantly, replacing George.
He may not exude an overpowering personality in the changing room, but Itoje’s leadership comes from his actions, a ferocious competitor who leads from the front while retaining a clear head to make decisions and engage with the referee when required. He, like Doris, is also an 80-minute player, meaning that his influence is not absent during the final quarter.
A basic criterion for selecting a Lions captain is traditionally a player who is guaranteed a place in the Test starting XV and what is fascinating about the rivalry between the two is that both players meet this benchmark. Doris may be a Lions rookie but has proven himself to be a world-class operator, who also prides himself on all-action contributions like Itoje, seemingly at his happiest when asked to run the ball into defensive brick walls.
Yet in Itoje’s favour is not just his greater international experience – this will be his third Lions tour – but also the fact that he would, from a perception point of view at least, provide a non-Irish figurehead for Farrell in a squad that is almost certainly and deservedly going to be dominated by Irish players.
That is not an issue that troubled Farrell’s predecessor Warren Gatland, who selected a Wales player to captain the three Lions tours he took charge of – Sam Warburton in Australia in 2013 and New Zealand in 2017, and Alun Wyn Jones for the tour of South Africa four years ago.
And Farrell will no doubt select the captain he believes is the best leader for the squad. Which brings us back to Ireland’s title showdown against France. If Doris can lead the charge for a third successive victory over France, which would set up a likely Grand Slam triumph against Italy in Rome on the final weekend, then it would be hard to look past the Ireland No 8.
But if Ireland slip up, and the title goes down to the wire with a three-way shoot-out with France and England, then Itoje’s form over the final two weekends may swing it towards the Saracens lock, if he can build on his displays.
In 2013, it was Wales’s stunning victory over England in the final round that had a major influence on the Lions squad make-up, and Ireland’s shock victory over England in 2017 opened the door of opportunity for Irish players such as O’Mahony to make the cut against the odds.
The Dublin encounter looks to be another such watershed moment.
